Rytvae Consulting · Think Right · Invest Right
Expected Return Calculator
Result
Chart
Show formula & working
E(R) = Σ pi × Ri · Variance = Σ pi × (Ri − E(R))² · SD = √variance
Details
How this works
Instead of one forecast, set out a few scenarios with their chances. The expected return is the probability-weighted average; the standard deviation shows how far outcomes can stray from it.
Expected return is an average over many repeats — in any one year you get one of the scenarios, not the average.
Frequently asked questions
Where do the probabilities come from?
Your own judgement or a research view. The result is only as good as these inputs.
What is the coefficient of variation?
SD ÷ expected return — risk per unit of return. Lower is better when comparing options.